Posted by: Dr Pano Kroko Churchill | March 27, 2012

In a Planet under pressure many Climate Tipping Points have been crossed according to Environmental Parliament

After seeing the American climate deniers up close and personal and the hopeless conservative anti-science politicians running for the White House as curious beasts proving the occasional failures of evolution, I hope the current logical rational and realistic President will persist.

And on the other end of the spectrum I was speaking with and experiencing the climate leaders addressing the Energy issues correctly through their choices in Renewable Energy. America a land of healthy contradictions..

And having just seen the Chinese Climate leadership the week before, and their purge of the hardliners and climate deniers from the Chinese Top level political leadership… Am convinced the moderates across the globe are the only ones with a chance to help us weather this Climate Chaos storm.

And in light of what we failed to accomplish in the World’s Climate Negotiations for a global CO2 emissions reduction treaty, last December in Durban, we are in seriously deep shite.

So now, I’ve come to the inevitable conclusions to share with You:

We are doomed to cross the “Berkeley line” as defined by the Environmental Parliament, with plenty of climate related catastrophes and human loss before we wake up to act and set up a real global Climate Change Policy with serious CO2 emission reductions globally.

Because in our planetary systems under intense pressure, many Climate Tipping Points have been crossed already and these are rather obvious to see. That is for those of us not living in Socrates’ cave chained to our ideological walls but living and seeing freely with open eyes and open minds. Yet I believe that eventually, all of will see the Truth. The only problem is that am afraid it might just be too late by then…

Because we will have to go through the inevitable climate global catastrophes equivalent of the Pearl Harbour, Katrina and 9/11 all rolled up into one, catastrophic wake up moments, that will drive us to react to what we now know to be true…

And it is reaction we need because we are causing these global catastrophes, if only because we failed to heed the science and failed to secure a global emissions reduction treaty. And we further failed to reach a climate change treaty in order to reduce our fossil fuel burning caused Greenhouse gas emissions and thus alter the inexorable path towards oblivion. We still exercise our folly, through our addiction to burning junk fossil fuels for energy and thus perpetuating the human caused warming atmosphere and a warming planet. And we do this without having built any brakes in the system… We built a runaway train without any brakes on it… Well done dear muppets…

And we can now report the tipping points of our Climate failures, that we already passed.

Not the ones in front of us mind you, but the planetary climate shift thresholds that we’ve already crossed over.

Today we will talk about the massive Sea ice loss and the gradual disappearance of the Arctic Sea ice.

The Arctic Sea Ice, this incredible thermostat regulator of our planet’s whole climate, has crossed a “tipping point” that could soon make the Arctic, ice-free, for all of the summer and across most of the Arctic Ocean.

This new found evidence is proven by the Arctic Sea ice historical data backed by the satellite imagery as reported by British climate scientists who are setting up an early warning system for dangerous climate tipping points.

Tim Lenton at the University of Exeter in England, has carried out a day-by-day assessment of Arctic Sea ice-cover data collected since satellite daily imagery observation began in 1979. Tim Lenton presented his findings for the first time at the “Planet Under Pressure” conference in London this week.

The record of satellite imagery clearly shows that up until 2007, Arctic ocean sea ice systematically fluctuated between extensive ice cover in winter and lower ice cover in summer. But since then, the difference between winter and summer ice cover has been a million square kilometres greater than it was before, as a result of unprecedented summer melting due to global warming both in the atmosphere and in the oceans.

The funny thing is that these observations are in total contrast to what all prior climate models predicted that should have happened to ice recovery, and what old fashion orthodox earth science stated, as well as what long term weather and meteorology science led us to believe and had put us to sleep with. And it’s a wake up call. and a real eye opener for all of us in government as well as for the responsible parties in the executive governments across the Earth and for all the world’s Democratic Parliaments and the Peoples in charge.

Because apparently we have fallen asleep at the switch and the runaway train of global warming and unprecedented Climate Change has come and gone. The runaway train has steamed through full speed, carrying all of us towards oblivion and the inevitable climate chaos and planetary systems crash…

And this maybe inevitable, because despite fears of runaway sea-ice loss after summer cover hit an all-time low in 2007, opening the Northwest Passage for the first time in living memory, all modelling studies based on our best understanding of ice dynamics indicated the ice cover should fully recover with each following winter. Yet it now seems with the power of hindsight, that all the studies were wrong because “they suggested that even if the Arctic Sea ice cover declined by rather large amounts in one year, it should bounce back,” says Walt Meier of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.

Instead, the currently revealed total satellite imagery intelligence research shows a permanent alteration. According to data from the past five years, the Arctic sea ice has not recovered from the 2007 extreme low. “The system has passed the tipping point,” British cutting edge earth scientist Tim Lenton says.

What caused the change is clear. Global Warming. Climate Change. All caused by our insatiable appetite for burning fossil fuels to produce our power and energy needs. And the accumulated CO2 in the atmosphere causes the greenhouse effect. Further contributing to Climate Chaos, Tim Lenton speculates that the exceptional low in 2007 might have allowed the ocean to absorb so much heat that itself has permanently warmed up. Because of that a lot of the thicker multiyear ice, which used to persist through the summer, was melted. Alternatively, the loss of ice may have changed air circulation patterns above the Arctic in ways that have similarly “locked in” the change.

Elsewhere in the conference, Euan Nisbet of Royal Holloway University London, offered one particularly scary consequence of Arctic Sea warming. He warned on Tuesday that warming ocean currents east of Greenland were melting ice in the seabed causing other climate caused runaway storm effects and freak occurrences such as underwater sea bed slides that can cause tsunamis. Because the ice seated in the seabed compresses the sea floor — when melted could trigger earthquakes and landslides on steep submarine slopes in the area, thus unleashing tsunamis capable of hitting the UK, the US and Europe, with catastrophic results for the humans, also releasing buried methane that in and of itself could amplify the global warming further in a deepening vicious cycle.

And if you think this is an unlikely alarming scenario — just consider that this has happened before. Because in our human history, the geological record reveals that something eerily similar happened off Norway 8000 years ago in a similar geological scenario and a catastrophic tsunami inundated the lands with forceful sea waters with catastrophic results, that made the Indonesian tsunami look like child’s play.

Had you thought of that when you voted for your fossil fueled politicians?

Or when you made your Energy choices and you bought that monster gas guzzling SUV?

And when you failed to use public transport?

Or the last time you visited the Super Market?

Because these daily choices make far more difference than any store bought fossil fueled Politician will make.

And we depend on each other for our future survival.

Remember that next time you head for the store, the gas station, the subway, the voting booth, or when speaking to your children…

Yours,

Pano

PS:

And the Environmental Parliament reviewed the key outcomes of the Durban Conference this week and decided that we will not heed science and lead to a peaking of global emissions well after 2020 and thus fail to maintain the world on a path to keep a temperature increase below 2° Celsius.

Ruddy Wallace co-ordinator of the Environmental Parliament said: The only positive outcome of Durban is to provide a boost for global climate action and activism. The young people need to act because it is their future we gamble upon. They reflect the growing, and in some quarters unexpected, determination of Peoples across the globe to act collectively. They provides a clear signal and predictability to the political and economic planners, businesses and investors about the future of our world and they vote with their feet for choices that will lead to our low-carbon economies of the future.

The big question many will ask is how this young people’s activism trend will translate into real policy achieved, resulting in actual CO2 emission reductions across the globe and by when?

Because we absolutely still need to peak our CO2 emissions by 2020 at the latest.

But that’s a difficult goal if not right down impossible.

In the real world of international negotiations on this exceptionally difficult global commons problem, this is what failure looks like…

Last year’s end, we gathered in Durban, South Africa, from all over the world to negotiate a Climate Deal. Yet we failed once again to reach any deal at all.

Failed to reach a meaningful deal and simply went on and accepted this defeatist attitude as a permanent state of being.

And this outcome in the South African coastal city, has now left the world with some serious and urgent challenges if a global temperature rise is to be kept under not 2, but rather under 4° Celsius in the 21st century.

This New pessimistic Equilibrium states that after we dismantled Kyoto, we should not hope for a global Climate Treaty for the next twenty years. The Kyoto extension agreed upon is toothless and anemic. Purely a New Years resolution written on paper, not worth it’s weight.

Incredibly daft and pessimistic as this may sound, the reality of it bites deep…

The United Nations Conference of the Parties is a deeply flawed process and in deep trouble much in need of a fix…

Maybe we need to scupper it.

Perhaps we should start anew with a different scheme of things and different institutions. At least this is what the Environmental Parliament believes and acts accordingly, going forward.

In the photo above, we have a bunch of climate negotiators from the BRIC countries along with Europe’s climate commissioner, Connie Hedegaard, chief architect of the failure in Copenhagen, now negotiating for the whole of Europe. And here she is overseen and in moments directed by America’s “chief climate rabbi” Todd Stern, as she discusses with India’s environment minister, Jayanthi Natarajan, and others, on “the 11th hour” of December 2011 in Durban, South Africa’s Conference of the Parties.

Failure writ large at COP17 by the UNFCCC…

Apparently the only real outcome of the Durban conference of the parties was the mere agreement “to work towards” a legally binding agreement in the future. And this future, would come into force in 2020 or much later…

Much Ado about nothing really…


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