Posted by: Dr Churchill | March 14, 2015

A New Deal For Europe

History is made up of momentary snippets stemming from the tangents of important milestones and events carved in Time, and leading to other events and milestones, that are in turn deemed as occurrences of note and significance.

All those rough landscape peaks and valleys in the line of Time gets recorded and stands out over all the other events that lead up to and follow these pivots that define the face of Humanity.

This is something that the big players of history understand well enough to shake it — whereas the bit players just trudge through it. That is why there are those of us who write history and those who are simply buffeted by it…

And it’s all about timing too, because as anyone who has been a darling of History will tell you — the secret is to be able to be in the Right place at the Right time, and to know that the HOW of it, is to just show up.

Yet to do this it is pivotal to take a long term view of the happenings in our Common Lives, so that their actions themselves become part of the Event horizon and not of the people’s limited horizon based on mortal limits.

Concepts, ideas, and culture, are timeless. People not so much…

The arrival of Democracy and Liberty are just such pivotal events that do not only alter the phases of Human development but are changing our whole culture and themselves as Ideas now are personified and have come to overwrite the History of Humanity.

And as we observe the process we recognize that all of these Great Ideas were embedded in people’s minds and hearts as early human creations and as concepts that were born and tried out, at a Time of Great Crisis. A crisis so deep that it came to be seen as a time of Chaos and imminent collapse; yet somehow it all turned out in our favour

The incredible effects of Cries, Chaos, Collapse, and the subsequent Emergence, are what we as Scientist have observed in both Biology and Economics and we have witnessed in Nature. Yet we are now witnessing the same Emergent effects playing out in Europe today.

And it’s all good material for study, because something NEW and promising, always emerges after crisis and the resultant Chaos settles down. This is what emerges now in Europe, as our continued and hopeful Existence demonstrates, instead of us perishing in death and oblivion. These are the two dominant options when one is found in a crisis so deep that brings a whole People on the brink of collapse.

And luckily enough, what we witness in Europe today is the former instead of the latter.

This is what we call Emergence…

And in today’s history writing about the future of Democracy & Liberty as living ideas, is what we see happening in Europe.

Because this evolutionary and highly uncertain process of Emergence, is similar to the outcome of the Greek elections this New Year.

This is where January brought a fresh government of a young people’s party Syriza, a progressive left wing party, that received the greatest share of the national electoral vote, and formed a coalition government under Alex Tsipras, as PM and Yanis Varoufakis as the Economy Minister.

It is a coalition built through a “general coalition” of ideas, and voters, and as such it is also backed by the centrist Party of Independent Greeks.

It’s important to note that Syriza is itself a coalition of independent groups of voters and organizations of citizens that had never received more than 5% of the national vote, and yet they garnered upwards of 37% on election day, and were lifted by their independent Greece rhetoric and freedom loving actions.

In essence they simply used the ideas of Liberty & Democracy and gave them a new shine. And these two simple ideas proved so powerful that the Public felt liberated as soon as the new government was created.

And as a matter of fact right now they are supported fully from most all the people in a show of Strength with approval ratings of up to 80% out of the population of Greece and upward of 50% out of the population of all of Europe.

This dramatic political turnaround could not have happened were it not for the power of the ideas of Democracy and Liberty, formed Millennia ago in the small mountainous peninsula of Greece that defined Europe and even gave it it’s name. “Europe” in ancient Greek means “the one with intellect and wide vision” and that is important to recall every time we seek to identify who is responsible for Europe’s leadership.

And if Europe is true to it’s Roots, then it needs to act lie it. Because concerted and idealistic action, for today’s reinvigoration of Democracy & defence of Liberty in Europe can only be seen through the Greek struggle for national independence.

And when we start seeing it that way, we start discerning the True Magnitude and the Reality of the intra-European conflict today.

And understanding History teaches us that when we start seeing the light beyond the horizon – we also manage to connect the dots easily. And the take away message here is to take into account the recent subservience and financial slavery imposed upon the modern Greeks as an act of wartime occupation.

Seeing History through this long term lens, as validated logically and proven on the ground by the devastating impact of these unprecedented austerity policies forced upon Greece by the German led Troika and Berlin’s neo-Nazi economic doctrine — You start becoming disgusted and rather dissiluttioned by the whole European project scrambled eggs salad.

Am saying this because these devastatingly daft austerity economic policies fully resemble wartime occupation policies imposed today by reincarnated German Gauleiters of the second World War era. Yet these economic policies were imposed today over a period of seven years, from 2008 to 2015, and not seventy five year ago in the 1940’s in occupied Europe.

These current Cauleiter German Austerity policies imposed upon Greece were foisted upon the Greek people, by two successive Blietzkriegs, named subtly as “Master Financial Assistance Facility Agreements” and signed between the “caretaker” governments of Greece as imposed by the German monetary occupation, and by the “Troika”. Troika being a triumvarite made up of Berlin, Brussels, and the World Bank corporation as represented by the IMF. Now this Troika is led by the nose from the corrupt German oligarchs and the banker-wankers eager to cover their profligate errors in sovereign bond investments and to simply make sense of efficient numbers in order to earn their bonuses — regardless if the people are damned and thrown in famine.

In other words, the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF, collectively conspired to enslave and violate the Greek people by impoverishing the whole country as they calculatingly led it to penury. This is an act of WAR as they sought to impoverish a whole People. It is now and forever will be known as the ultimate form of Violence against a sovereign state of Europe in the new Millennia, and in the way we will be waging war in the future.

Economic War…

Economic war is the evolutionary form of conflict because it is easily justifiable as disconnected actions by special interests, and there is no direct accountability by the Perpetrators of it.

In short in today’s Political Science, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy, You best engage in Economic War than in actual war. And this is happening a lot these days, because it appears to be a “cheaper” form of classical War and a means of prosecuting undeclared conflict that can quickly undermine, and incapacitate others while removing claimants to Supremacy. Yet it is also fair to note that increasingly one form of conflict leads to another.

But when you discern the threads that connect the actions of these economic interests, you’ll see that they all converge to a centre where the ultimate decisions are taken.

And if you see that centre to be Berlin, than You know what’s up.

And the willy, always planning, and eternally prodding, Germans, understand the value of using economic Blietzkrieg in order to win their war, because Economic wars are just that. Lightning fast attacks on the economy of another nation, that takes the unsuspecting victim by surprise and thus carries the day for the Aggressor.

But these victories are short lived because Justice, Democracy, & Liberty, although they are slow to arrive — they invariably show up victorious and seeking a just yet brutal revenge. Lady Justice can be excused for being tardy because being blind is needing the help of the people to find her targets, and Lady Liberty is a fighting warrior always ready to emerge. But Lady Democracy is nowhere near as powerful, but is rather a waif always needing strong attention to simply survive.

But going back to the Economic war as the one unleashed by Germany against Greece, it was obvious early on that it will lead to the complete collapse of the target nation, and it’s people, much faster and with much less of an investment — than the classic war of bullets flying, airplanes bombing, and boots thumping on the ground, or even through cyber attack or biological warfare.

Borders don’t matter very much anymore and especially in the case of Europe — we see the carnage and the results of it everywhere.

This German hatched “Economic War Plan” simply was a convenient way for the bankers of Frankfurt and Berlin gaining “lebenstraum” (living space) by covering-up their own failure in managing their Bank investments of sovereign debt, and foisting on their incompetence onto the innocents. Innocents such as the Greeks and the Southern Europeans. This eventually was loaded onto the bent back of the whole country of Greece and it’s people, who were led to believe that a complete bankruptcy and total penury in exchange for 226.7 billion euros in bail-out loans, that really bailed out only the European Bankers — was their fault.

It is good to remember that in German history, Lebensraum (“living space”) was a racist ideology that proposed the aggressive, territorial expansion of Germany against all others by subjugating, exterminating, and removing whole nation of people. This ideology saw it’s heyday under the Nazis.

Go Figure.

The funny thing is that these Economic War loans were channeled almost exclusively to the European banking system, in order to avoid the write-down of their previous bad loans to the Greek government and the banking system, as well as to pay back interest and capital operations, to the same German banks mostly. And yet the Greek people were called to pay these back…

Proof of that economic war plan is that nothing out of these loans ostensibly made to the country of GREECE, was reserved for Greece’s economic growth and human safety net, and thus we saw a bombed out country whose economy contracted sharply and it became the poorest country of Europe in a short five years.

To put this into perspective this reduction of Greece’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product), was far worse than the war time economic collapse of Iraq and Afghanistan, and the reductions in those countries’ economic output.

Much like in a war situation, and in an occupied country sharply plummeting economic activity, led to dramatic falls in general income and tremendous unemployment. This created the chaos that ordinary Greeks live through today.

This was because less than 9% of the so called bail-out loans went to finance the Greek government accounts, and even that money went right back out of the country to safe heavens and the European banks … due to corruption of these caretakers of Berlin.

This was the agreed upon “conditionality” for the bail-out loans that included sharp cuts in fiscal expenditures and social benefits, steep rises in direct and indirect taxes, and across-the-board cuts in wages and pensions, exceeding in many instances 40% and 50%. This resulted in a massive 35% drop in national income, raised the average unemployment rate to over 37%, increased over-indebtedness and vastly exacerbated poverty and inequality.

Hopelessness and Despair mounted and the Suicide rate climbed to 10,000% from what it was before the Economic War and the resultant crisis. The loss of Health care and the tremendous drop in the nutrition of the people also killed many hundreds of thousands of Greeks in addition to the direct suicides.

After the year of shocked indifference and hope against hope, even the Middle-class voters of different political persuasions woke up and voted massively for the young party of Syriza — demanding an end to the occupation governments and to the Economic War that has forced such devastation upon the people of the ancient land of REASON, Logic & Philosophy — Greece.

And thus we now have the young Leaders who seek a new deal for Greece within or without the European Union. We now have a group of people in Leadership who seek to put an end to the German imposed harsh austerity policies, and who want to map a feasible pro-growth strategy.

In essence what really happened is that the Greek people woke up. They recognized that they were under occupation and bombardment and did what Greek usually do. They stuck a middle finger to Germany and her servants in Brussels and Washington, and declared loudly Greece’s independence and self determination.

That to me sounds like the song of Freedom and Democracy. Lady Liberty comes now dancing along…

Of course, the future is highly uncertain. Nothing is guaranteed whenever you embark on a  war of national Liberation, but one thing remains certain: As Nelson Mandela told me; When You fight for what is right, and for your own Liberty from slavery — You are already FREE. You are again the Master of your own House. You have already regained your own Dignity.

And in the process, you are becoming again a full Human Being.

And that is what is happening today in Greece. People are regaing their own value. Naturally difficult negotiations between the new Greek government and its European and Eurozone partners have already started. Difficult days are ahead and there is no conclusion in sight… but the neo-Nazi German bankers are now seeing their stalemate and their failed blietzkrieg same as the old Stalingrad that broke their back.

And this fight is played out in boardrooms across Europe where after a failed attempt to reach a preliminary “cease fire” agreement on 16th of February, a new statement was finally agreed upon a week later accompanied by a preliminary list of conditional structural measures and reforms to be finalized by the end of April and implemented by the end of a four-month period. The list includes prior commitments agreed upon by the previous governments subject to selected revisions to be suggested by the current government in the spirit of “given flexibility” and respect for the national sovereignty of the country.

Based on the preliminary agreement, Greece will not receive any funds from its official creditors ‒ including the 1.9 billion euros in SMP profits that have already been remitted by the ECB to Eurozone countries ‒ until a review of the bail-out package is successfully completed at the end of the four-month period. Furthermore, the Greek government is not allowed, for the time being, to issue more short-term T-bills given that the ECB-imposed limit (set at 15 billion euros) has already been reached, while government bonds are not acceptable by the ECB. Thus, liquidity to the banking system is currently provided only through the Emergency Liquidity Assistance programme of the ECB at higher costs.

The talks are tricky talks but there are no tangible gains to be had if they conclude in a proper wave of synchronized movement while singing “Cumbaya”… All this makes for a rather difficult outcome and perhaps it is indeed a bridge too far.

Yet despite appearances, the negotiating process and the agreement reached has brought about some tangible political and economic gains — even if only imaginary, both for the Greek government and Eurozone leaders but at the same time it also poses risks that are far too real and that need to be carefully addressed.

Putting aside the open disagreement of those who opt for a clear break with the past, even at the cost of a complete breakdown of negotiations or even a self driven “Grexit” (= Exit from the Euro), or even Exit from the European Union, the Greek government’s popularity ratings have exceeded 80% as a consequence of its strong negotiating stance.

For most Greeks, it was the first time since 2008 that a Greek government highlighted to the creditors and the international community the dramatic consequences and the fallacy of an ill-designed austerity and German Nazi inspired structural-reform programme, that not only impoverished large segments of the population, but also exacerbated the debt burden, deteriorated investment prospects, led thousands of highly-skilled professionals to leave the country, and worsened the country’s long-run competitiveness prospects.

But let’s see where this leads by trying to find who is that is still making the case for Europe now inside Greece and outside Brissels?

For the Eurozone’s institutional leadership, the provisional agreement demonstrated its capacity to take into account and respect democratic processes and outcomes, to exhibit needed openness and flexibility in the design and conduct of policy and to underpin the European social model.

At a time when Euro-scepticism is on the rise across the continent, forging an agreement across governments of different political orientations that upholds fundamental European values has enhanced the legitimacy of the European project. It has also delivered a strong message against the worrying rise of far-right extremism.

The content of the agreement also provides potential economic advantages to both negotiating parties. For the Greek side, it provides a degree of freedom to the government to propose changes in the policy mix and the choice of structural reforms; in so doing, the government can pursue its objective to shift the burden of adjustment to higher-income groups, address tax evasion and enhance social fairness and social protection. Furthermore, the language of the agreement opens up the possibility of a reduction in the primary surplus target for 2015 below 3% of GDP to a level that “takes into account the economic circumstances”. “Excessive, self-defeating austerity is off” proclaimed a German analyst.

The outcome will be beneficial not only for Greece, but for all Eurozone member countries. For the Eurozone, which continues to be characterized by secular stagnation and deflation, reaching a compromise in the Greek case offers an opportunity for a needed and wanted turn-around in policies by providing less austerity, more flexibility and better sequencing. Such a turn-around will have positive repercussions for trade, investment, growth and employment. Consensual politics strengthens the arm of those institutions and political forces (e.g. Euro Parliament, ECB, Commission, Social Democrats, Greens, etc.) that have pushed for more anti-cyclical, pro-growth policies or have sought opportunities to alter the policy mix actually pursued in their own country.

Last but not least, the prospect of a reasonable compromise settlement has strengthened the legitimacy and viability of the Eurozone against those Euro-sceptics who have prophesied the dissolution of the currency area in the face of diverging preferences and underlying economic imbalances.

But there are challenges ahead and any Leader must observe those and tread a careful path… because despite these potential benefits, there are a number of risks ahead that could impose heavy costs on both the Greek economy and the Eurozone. Mitigating these costs requires bold political decisions that bridge political differences and restore trust among partners who profess that they want to continue working together.

In the very short run, provision of liquidity to the economy is essential. An economy cannot run if consumers, investors or exporters do not have a minimal assurance that credit will continue to be available over the next six months. Linking the provision of ECB credit to the approval and implementation of structural reforms, which by their very nature take time to be properly designed and implemented, can easily backfire and has already started doing so: it fuels widespread uncertainty and deposit withdrawals and provides incentives for capital flight and quick-fixes. Conditionality needs therefore to be revisited: reform implementation needs to be linked to debt alleviation or development finance as opposed to short-run credit provision.

The second challenge concerns the issue of debt management. Eurozone member countries’ external debt dynamics were toxic from the beginning. Even today – despite the Private Sector Initiative, which reduced the burden of its private debt by 130 billion euros in 2011-2012 – without official debt relief, Greece’s external indebtedness will continue to rise, sap domestic activity and crumble investment and growth prospects. Eurozone countries will have to continue to bail-out Greece through more loan extensions for the country to be able to pay back its creditors.

Debt relief can be achieved in a number of ways: rescheduling and re-profiling could be complemented with bilateral debt-equity swaps, the issuance of GDP-indexed bonds, equitization of debt, etc. underpinned by strong conditionality linked to the implementation of meaningful structural reforms. If not done, Greece will not be able to get out of its present low-productivity/over-indebtedness trap and the Eurozone will continue to bleed. And that is not done. Therefore although this is what this deal is all about, we are nowhere near to getting anything done.

The February 20th agreement which specified that Greece’s deficit target for this year would be set after taking account of current economic conditions, implying that the previous, patently unrealistic target had been dropped. Perhaps this really would enable Greece’s government to get on with the urgent task of providing some relief to Greece’s stricken economy and moving beyond austerity.

So far, however, things haven’t turned out that way. Far from enjoying some fiscal space, the Greek government has spent much of the past few weeks watching its money run out and struggling to make payments on loans that have come due. Despite the Brussels agreement, Greece hasn’t received any disbursements from the E.U., and it won’t receive any until Greece can persuade the European Commission, the European Central Bank (E.C.B.), and the International Monetary Fund—the “troika” of financial institutions that has long overseen the Greek bailout — that its economic-reform program meets their specifications. In the meantime, Greece is dependent on the E.C.B alone for financing, and the bank is doling out credit very stringently —- in the words of Economy Minister Yanis Varoufakis, it is “asphyxiating” the Greek government.

This isn’t happening by accident. It is a continuation of the Economic War waged by Germany for European supremacy, as it seeks to satisfy both it’s demands and to justify it’s reasons, but most importantly to legitimize the Economic Warfare and the Blietzkrieg itself and to obfuscate the central German Command’s planning of it.

Evidence of this is that the February agreement was not designed to give the Greek government any financial breathing room, but to pressure it into acceding to the wishes of its creditors.

This agreement was just another way to subjugate Greece and it’s new government, slowly but surely, under the weight of economic torture like waterboarding, in order for them to submit to the German demands.

Greece’s negotiators did win a relaxation, albeit an unspecified one, of its deficit target for this year.

But to Germany and other big European countries, the two key aspects of the deal were that the Greek government agreed to submit a reform plan to the troika for approval, and that Greece would not receive any money right away—thus leaving it hostage to the E.C.B, which is a creature of the European establishment.

With this deal in place, the European Union is trying to squeeze the Greek government into full surrender and unconditional submission to a bunch of nameless and faceless institutional demands. This could be seen as a smart move on the part of the German party of Neo-Nazi bankers, at the same time that the country’s tax revenues are declining, and it is facing a funding crisis, but they forget the indomitable Greek Spirit.

How acute is this crisis?

In the space of the past week it has raised six-month T-bills, tapped into the bank deposits of pensions and public sector salaries, postponed government payments for supplies to the public and private sector, and approached the Greek subsidiaries of multi-national companies for short-term loans.

The Greek banking system, which in normal times could help to fund the government, suffered a rash of withdrawals in the weeks after Syriza’s election, in late January, and it is still dependent on outside support. On Thursday, the E.C.B, which is providing loans to Greek financial institutions solely through its Emergency Liquidity Assistance facility, said it would raise the borrowing ceiling for Greek banks by six hundred million euros. But this is only a short-term measure. If current trends continue, financial analysts say, the banks will need more credit in another week or two.

At a press conference in Paris on Thursday, the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras publicly acknowledged that the February agreement had left him and his colleagues in a bind. “One of the gaps was there was no clear reference to the issue of financing,” he said. Asked what he was going to do next, given that Greece’s creditors were “tightening the noose,” he replied, with a wry smile, “I do not feel as if I have a noose around my neck. I feel that Greece is determined to move forward along the reform process. Our partners need to understand they need to help and assist us, and leave the past as a bad memory.”

The Prime Minister also told Greece’s parliament, that the country had a “moral obligation” to seek reparations from Germany for its actions during the Second World War, thereby raising the possibility that the Greek government might seize some German-owned assets. The Greek PM is in a tough spot, though. Some Government coalition members are accusing him of capitulating to the European Union, and it is not so surprising that he has chosen to take a few shots at the Germans, whom many Greeks hold responsible for their current woes. And he made a very good point, in Paris, about the need for Greece’s European Union partners to help his country out.

Forget, for a moment, the increasingly bitter daily back-and-forth. Since the new Greek government was elected, on a platform of ending austerity and throwing out the troika. Still, it has said that it will run a primary surplus this year and will submit an economic reform proposal to the troika. This is a proposal that is to include anti-corruption measures, a clampdown on tax evasion, and moves to break up monopolies. All these are policies that would appeal to the E.C.B. and the I.M.F. and to the whole of the European Union. But Greece also wants to do some things the troika might not like, such as stopping mortgage foreclosures and raising wages. Over all, though, the Greek government has moved in the direction that the E.U. wants, in a way that is a bridge too far, even, for some of its own members.

In this context, Greece surely deserves some financial leeway to present its reform proposal and introduce some of the humanitarian measures it has promised to the Greek people, such as providing free food, and heating, to the very poor who just might starve to death. In backing off a bit now, the European Union wouldn’t be giving up much, but it would be getting back a great deal in terms of attempting to regain it’s human dignity.

Because if, by the end of April, which is the agreed-upon deadline for the troika to review Greece’s reform program — the proposals still aren’t satisfactory to the Troika, it will have the option to deny Greece more money and let the country fend for itself. But the Troika squeezing the Greek government now, when it remains committed to the agreement reached in Brussels — is unconscionable.

The E.U. claims that it is merely sticking by its rule book for negotiating bailouts. But, it almost seems as though some prominent European Union leaders are determined to exact retribution for uppity behaviour by the Greek Prime Minister and, especially, the Economy Minister Professor Yanis Varoufakis. The solution here does not lie just in the Greek side getting a crash course in European diplomacy and being more circumspect in what it says, but it also requires true Europeans on the other side to quash any feelings of punishment or prejudice that are stirring within the corridors of power in Brussels and other European capitals.

In Brussels on Wednesday, a team from Greece met with representatives of the troika to start going over the Greek proposals in detail. It’s too early to predict how these talks will turn out. But for the Greek government to be able to sell an agreement to the Greek public, it will need to show that the negotiations have been carried out in good faith, and that a significant break with the past has taken place. If the E.U. is seen to be bullying the Greek government into capitulating, it will spark a public backlash that is likely to end with Greece leaving both the euro zone and the European Union.

Personally, I’m not entirely convinced that that would be the worst outcome for Greece. But it’s not an outcome that any of the parties involved claim to want. If they mean what they say, it’s time for a change of tack, and for a display of statesmanship.
It’s time for some calm European to lead as Europeans and to not allow the German neo-Nazis to hijack European policy. It is now clear that the responsibility of “All Leaders” involved, and not involved, to reach a viable agreement with Greece maintaining it’s leadership role inside Europe, both in it’s European Foundation heritage position, as well as in it’s present position, as the leading defender of Liberty and Democracy.

This understanding and support of the leading country of Europe Greece, is of critical importance for the future of Europe, because Europe without Greece is like trying to run Linux in your computer without the kernel.

This is why a Good New Deal is important for Europe because a viable agreement is not critical for Greece, that has the longest and most brilliant history of any nation of Europe as an independent nation-state and a tribe of proud people.

And it’s refreshing to watch and participate in helping the Greek people today in regaining their much maligned self worth, and winsome pride once again.

For me it has always been evident that Greece is best to be independent once again. And if this can be accomplished within a Democratic Europe that respects the individual state Rights equally, and ensures Liberty for all — then it’s good to be part of it. But if Europe is an Oligarchy, and it attempts to rule by German FIAT and it makes up rules to favour the oppresors of the People, and the neo-Nazi bankers, then Greece iss far better going it alone.

As her History has proven — she is the one to lead to glory, and not the Barbarians.

Ten thousand years of history of this small tribe of people, that was started with the family of “Ellas” who were fathered by “Elin” a man who once lived in the delta of the verdant valley of Sperheios river, as Herodotos and Homer both tell us — cannot be subjugated to the daft Hun.



A new deal needs therefore to be forged between Greece and its Eurozone partners.

A deal that respects Greece’s independence.

A deal that is based on an effective political settlement that would strengthen the Eurozone by spurring growth, maintaining social cohesion and underpinning inclusive, democratic institutions.

Such a new deal can indeed be a win-win game for both Greece and the Eurozone.

But since this is an unlikely circumstance — a divorce is a better life choice, for both parties.

It is then that Greece can channel its unforgettable past while embracing its unavoidable future.

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