Posted by: Dr Pano Kroko Churchill | September 8, 2015

IRAN PEACE DEAL — Who Deals WIth Persia?

After many months of principled diplomacy, the Western Coalition of a group of countries commonly called the P 5+1 [the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China, Russia and Germany, along with the European Union] have achieved a long-term comprehensive nuclear deal with the country of Iran, that will verifiably prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, and it will ensure that Iran’s nuclear program will be exclusively peaceful in all of it’s pursuits going forward.

In this essay the terms “Diplomacy” “diplomat” and “diplomatic” are used in the traditional political sense, meaning agents of the state acting on behalf of recognised international actors, for the conduct of mutual relations of a non-violent character and not as some erroneously might expect that Diplomats are out there presenting “Ultimatums” like in the Good old Days of the Dogs of War…

But let’s not forget that the extension of Diplomacy could very well be armed conflict when the efforts of diplomats fail at Conflict Resolution and all diplomatic avenues are blocked.

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Building a nuclear bomb requires either uranium or plutonium. But thanks to this deal, Iran’s four possible ways to leverage those fissile materials are all blocked.

Iran would need two key elements to construct a uranium bomb: tens of thousands of centrifuges and enough highly enriched uranium to produce enough material to construct a uranium bomb.
There are currently two uranium enrichment facilities in the country: the Natanz facility and the Fordow facility.
Let’s take a look at Iran’s uranium stockpile first. Currently, Iran has a uranium stockpile to create 8 to ten nuclear bombs.
But thanks to this nuclear deal, Iran must reduce its stockpile of uranium by 98%, and will keep its level of uranium enrichment at 3.67% — significantly below the enrichment level needed to create a bomb.
Iran also needs tens of thousands of centrifuges to create highly enriched uranium for a bomb. Right now, Iran has nearly 20,000 centrifuges between their Natanz and Fordow facilities. But under this deal, Iran must reduce its centrifuges to 6,104 for the next ten years. No enrichment will be allowed at the Fordow facility at all, and the only centrifuges Iran will be allowed to use are their oldest and least efficient models.
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The third way Iran could build a nuclear weapon is by using weapons-grade plutonium. The only site where Iran could accomplish this is the Arak reactor, a heavy-water nuclear reactor. Right now, this reactor could be used in a weapons program, but under this deal, the Arak reactor will be redesigned so it cannot produce any weapons-grade plutonium. And all the spent fuel rods (which could also be source material for weapons-grade plutonium) will be sent out of the country as long as this reactor exists. What’s more, Iran will not be able to build a single heavy-water reactor for at least 15 years. That means, because of this deal, Iran will no longer have a source for weapons-grade plutonium.
The previous three pathways occur at facilities that Iran has declared. But what if they try to build a nuclear program in secret? That’s why this deal is so important. Under the new nuclear deal, Iran has committed to extraordinary and robust monitoring, verification, and inspection. International inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will not only be continuously monitoring every element of Iran’s declared nuclear program, but they will also be verifying that no fissile material is covertly carted off to a secret location to build a bomb. And if IAEA inspectors become aware of a suspicious location, Iran has agreed to implement the Additional Protocol to their IAEA Safeguards Agreement, which will allow inspectors to access and inspect any site they deem suspicious. Such suspicions can be triggered by holes in the ground that could be uranium mines, intelligence reports, unexplained purchases, or isotope alarms.
Basically, from the minute materials that could be used for a weapon comes out of the ground to the minute it is shipped out of the country, the IAEA will have eyes on it and anywhere Iran could try and take it.
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As it stands today, Iran has a large stockpile of enriched uranium and nearly 20,000 centrifuges, enough to create 8 to 10 bombs. If Iran decided to rush to make a bomb without the deal in place, it would take them 2 to 3 months until they had enough weapon-ready uranium (or highly enriched uranium) to build their first nuclear weapon. Left unchecked, that stockpile and that number of centrifuges would grow exponentially, practically guaranteeing that Iran could create a bomb—and create one quickly – if it so chooses.
This deal removes the key elements needed to create a bomb and prolongs Iran’s breakout time from 2-3 months to 1 year or more if Iran broke its commitments. Importantly, Iran won’t garner any new sanctions relief until the IAEA confirms that Iran has followed through with its end of the deal. And should Iran violate any aspect of this deal, the U.N., U.S., and E.U. can snap the sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy back into place.
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One hundred years ago History tells us how the “Accidental” First World War was started. And it largely blames Diplomacy…

Of course diplomats and their Art of Diplomacy have often been blamed for failing to prevent the outbreak of the First World War. This failure was, however, the result of their culture and of the expectations placed on them by their governments, which were mostly restricted to the conduct of ordinary and peaceful bilateral relations and not complex scenarios of three level chess with multiple universes all moving at once. The Diplomats tasked with preventing First World War never even thought possible that this massive conflagration will take place, let alone that it will be sparked by a butterfly fluttering her wings in Sarajevo. The world was not prepared and the diplomats did not understand what they were dealing with. There were no multiparty discussions and no economic sanctions to speak of. The Diplomats of the day were simple men of commerce who were not prepared for, nor instructed, and not even allowed to intervene actively in conflict prevention, conflict resolution, and in bridge building.

And it showed…

Yet this week, one hundred years after the Great War to End all Wars, the critics of the newly hatched Iran diplomatic deal, along with various confused ideologues, some neocons, a few oilmen, several military industrial complex suits, and assorted war profiteers, including former vice president Dick Cheney operating in the bush administration as the man who shoots his friends in the face — are gathering in Washington to diss the IRAN PEACE DEAL.

And it’s great bandwagon with enough space to fit in all the clowns and the scardy cats. Do you feel like tying up your destiny to this party of crazies?

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They are gathering in Washington, to bitch and moan; or better yet to bitch and ditch. Much like captive women destined for the slave markets of yore — these ultra conservative jihaddis of the beltway are behaving like victims tied up to the chariot of the old king “The Dick” that led us to two failed wars and to a national bankruptcy. Somehow they don’t seem to want to liberate themselves and start thinking for themselves. They have surrendered their intellect to tricky Dick all over again and are refusing to think for themselves. And so is the whole of the Republican party. Tied up like whores to be given to the highest bidder, in the slave bazaar of ideas lost and found is where the whole of the RNC finds itself. The self appointed slave master and Auctioneer of the Record is Dick Cheney.

And thus the Talibanization of the Republican party continues with plenty of snake oil salesmen, false prophets, and swindlers… sadly without the hippster beards, the glasses, and the long salwars — but dressed in severely old fashion suits and chocking neckties to match.

Guess every season must have one… A tricky dick that is.

These titans of lilliputian intelligence, are all calling in unison for the “Crime of Treason” that is abandoning our diplomatic deal with Iran and the world.

Yet they have nothing to offer in return because, they only call for a dangerously simplistic vision of American “leadership” and a throw back to a simpler World of yester year based on plain military “Might” and unilateral actions, that would ultimately leave us with a choice between accepting a nuclear Iran or using military force and starting a major third War of Destruction in the Middle East.

Hurrah for the dogs of war.

Today, former Vice President Dick Cheney is speaking out against the Iran Peace Deal as if he is condoning torture all over again, and his argument sounds familiar because we’ve heard his kind of false logic again, when he was advocating the war against Saddam Hussein based on pure lies about WMDs and when he spoke of his decision to launch the Iraq war that bedevils us to this day with it’s catastrophic outcomes.

Yet this proponents of Nation building and Democracy through torture and mayhem in foreign lands, and through lies and deceit in America, is at his old game once again.

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Pay attention because this is no abstract debate — but a fight for our very FUTURE.

Those, like me, who have served the cause of Peace far too often, understand all too well the sacrifice that is required when diplomacy is abandoned. I have spent much of my adult life attempting to redeem the aftermath of a deeply unnecessary and misguided war in Afghanistan and in Iraq in the name of non-proliferation. Having worked with Iraqi refugee families facing desperate circumstances in Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, and Europe — I believe we must ask a couple of simple question of anyone wishing to be taken seriously on matters of national security in America today:

What have you learned from the Iraq war?

And then… we have to also ask:

Have you benefited economically from this war?

We ask these questions because some of the same people who supported the premature and ultimately failed military action in Iraq, based on pure lies, faulty CIA intelligence, and eager beaver cowboy mentality — remain eager to reject Diplomacy again today and go for another round of “Rodeo in the Desert”.

They reject on ideology and war profiteering expectation — the whole Diplomatic effort we have going with Iran today. They are so callous as to reject even the kind of tough diplomacy that brought us this deal with IRAN that now blocks the path of Iran from ever becoming a nuclear power.

Remarkably, many of these simplistic morons have made clear that they reject the very idea of negotiating with Iran at all. Even after ISIS — all the assorted “dicks” in the room can’t see the reality staring them in the face. That’s the problem with one eyed wonders…

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But this is also the view of the world shared by none other than Mullah Omar, another radical one eyed wonder who as leader of the Afghan Taliban brought us plenty of grief by hosting Osama Bin Laden in the country and allowing him to unleash mayhem in NYC on 9/11.

And perhaps we should “Follow The Money” and see who has benefited the most from these oil wars. And we must also remember how radical this War Profiteering World view truly is. Halliburton Inc, is Dick Cheney’s baby — not American Freedom and Democracy, or National and International Security.

Thus if we isolate the oil messengers of doom and gloom and if we stop listening to the Kasandras describing a Mad max type of Future — we just find the quiet space that will allow us to think and understand that taking the middle road might be our best bet yet.

Let slip away the dogs of war….

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Diplomacy and the solutions it brings about, are just.

Just solutions with positive outcomes for all concerned are long lasting because of the Justice built into them. The concept of Justice in dispute resolution, same as in International diplomacy is the only Real glue to hold an agreement in place for a long time. And that is why the ancient Art of avoiding war is called reasonable negotiation for mutually beneficial outcomes. Dispute Resolution or Diplomacy in short. Diplomacy of the kind that deflates the belicose voices for war. Diplomacy of the kind that Julius Caesar engaged into. The tough diplomacy of Cato… And that is why important Presidents from Eisenhower to Nixon and Kennedy, and from Reagan to Bush Sr., knew that sometimes, facing our adversaries across the negotiating table is a better way to advance our interests, promote our values, and improve our security than rushing to face them on the battlefield.

They understood that tough, principled diplomacy is a hallmark of our strength — and that exhausting diplomatic options before asking our men and women in uniform to confront the awful face of battle, is a basic responsibility of leadership.

The Cuban missile crisis that was solved under the Kennedy & Khrutsev diplomatic deal and spared us all from catastrophic nuclear wars — is the best evidence of that. Today so may years after the Cold War ended — we have finally repaired our Cuban relationship and reestablished diplomatic ties with this happy Caribbean nation that loves baseball and all things American.

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So it is worth noting that embracing the use of force as a first option, while rejecting the very idea of tough negotiations with dangerous countries, is a departure from our nation’s best strategic traditions and most essential moral values. The costs of that departure have been great, and remain with us to this day. We who have spent our lives since 9/11 on the front lines of a dangerous world have learned from our shared experience that America can — and must — do better, and be smarter.

Using tough, principled diplomacy, backed by strength, to reduce the threat posed by our enemies is one of America’s greatest bipartisan traditions.

This deal with Iran reflects the painful lessons of our recent past, and represents a higher form of renewed American leadership. America rallied support for sanctions around the world, forced Iran to the table, and delivered a tough deal based on verification — not trust. If Iran abides by the terms, that leadership will have improved our security and safeguarded our allies without putting American lives at risk. If Iran cheats, or threatens our security in other ways, we will be watching – with every tool of our national power remaining at our disposal, much better intelligence, and the world committed to standing with us in our response.

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We must remember our essential goal: To prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. This deal accomplishes that goal.

And if Iran does choose conflict, there is nothing in this deal that gives away the power and resolve of our military, or our commitment to defend our nation and our allies. Make no mistake. That is their responsibility. Ours is to learn from painful experience, and choose with wisdom worthy of their service.

It is a strong man who can deal with Persia and come out of it a winner… And Secretary of State John Kerry is just that kind of Man who alongside Obama made this deal possible. And that we need to respect if we want to turn the page from the likes of Cheney’s bush, and Condoleeza, or Hillary who engaged wholeheartedly in these wars and even the latter one who formented the discord and bloodshed that is Syria today, and whose legacy on this matter is far more criminal than in the email red herring they are waving in front of our face all day long.

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Yours,

Pano

PS:

With Obama administration ending another war in the Middle East methinks we should give them another Peace prize this time for Secretary Kerry and the other negotiators of this monumental deal for our times.

Am just saying this because it takes a man with balls of steel to negotiate a deal sure to break the back of the nervous and the timid. Kerry fought in Vietnam wheres “Dick” and “W” were wheelchair bound “warriors”exempting themselves from armed duty due to the poor state of their mental health or worse.

And am saying this as a Man that comes from the small fighting tribe of people that annihilated the ancient Persian empire at the time of it’s greatest strength when Persia enjoyed the status of World Supremacy. That is when Alexander defeated the King of Kings and brought an end to Persia’s dictatorial view of the world.

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It is those of us that have seen war and it’s ravages much like a bombed out meat market — that we come to admit Diplomacy as the best of all choices to address War. After all War is an extension of Diplomacy. And when Diplomacy fails we engage in War. But we do so willingly. Yet today let’s give Peace a chance first…

Even if only because War or “Diplomacy by other means” is certainly a causeway to undesired consequences, blowbacks, and major failures — for a lot longer than war and it’s aftermath will last.

So it is high time now that we should politely ask the one eyed wondrous “dick” to shut the fvck up because today we have no more room for jihaddis of any color or stripe, whether in Washington, or in Baghdad and Teheran.

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We especially don’t need these Alzheimer sufferers who escape the nursing home to come babble inanities in Washington. Who wants to hear of days gone by where the great Crusaders fought in the deserts of the Middle East for honour and oil — mainly because today we have loads of both, and maybe far more than we know where to store it.

Reason and Intelligence have prevailed and the radical worldview that led to the wars in Iraq, belongs to the past, right alongside the high oil prices and the shortages of energy.

Our generation has charted a new course for the future. And it includes renewable energy resources… so those oil based republics don’t matter that much anymore, and the Texas chicken littles, should crawl back under their mommy’s skirt.

And we are so sorry that You, old oil wars profiteers can’t make more money from your fossil fuel investments. My heart is going out for You. And as your future becomes more and more uncertain, we are sure to push for more and more divestment…

Because we remain resolute that escaping fossil fuel pressures and embracing tough, principled diplomacy as a first resort, is the best way forward for our nation and the world.

War can wait another day…

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And if you believe in crowdsourcing Wisdom as I do — here is to the more than 100 countries across the globe that have publicly gone ON RECORD having endorsed the historic agreement that will prevent a nuclear-armed Iran.

How is that for a coalition force of the willing?

PPS:

Here you can red the whole of the Iran Peace Deal for yourself:

http://www.medium.com/the-iran-deal/introduction-fcb13560dfb9

The Iran Peace Deal

Introduction

It took nearly two years.

The United States and the world’s major powers — the United Kingdom, France, Germany, China, Russia, and the European Union — and Iran sat around the negotiating table month after month, negotiating every detail that would inch us ever-closer to delivering on a promise President Obama had made before he first took office. Then, on July 14, 2015, with a shared commitment to peace, the United States and our international partners announced we had secured a nuclear deal that would achieve the necessary: Verifiably prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

It’s an historic deal — a promise fulfilled. It blocks every possible pathway Iran could use to build a nuclear bomb while ensuring — through a comprehensive, intrusive, and unprecedented verification and transparency regime — that Iran’s nuclear program remains exclusively peaceful moving forward.


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