Posted by: Dr Pano Kroko Churchill | February 8, 2017

How President Donald Trump successfully titilates the Markets… and helps them get ahead on the “Uncertainty Principle”

Sure things happen rapidly with President Trump now, and the pundits and their heads are exploding all around us…

It happens because contrary to the long held and erroneous popular belief that the markets hate uncertainty — markets rally around uncertainty and that is what makes people profits.

So if people make profits, then people should learn to love “uncertainty” and that should be considered good for the markets.

So by extension we should turn the old saw around and let it be known that secretly Markets pine For Uncertainty, like a blonde bitchy beauty queen pines for a bad boy on a Harley, who will mistreat her, do drugs, rough her up, and generally cause her plenty of life affirming drama & heartache — all the while she’s finally happily validating her boring existence.

And so do the Markets. Being females of the puritan sort — they like a good thrashing in the barn with the other barn animals and thus they always choose to rally for the uncertainty that comes with a bad boy to the boring nice & steady certainty of the boy scouts.

Beautiful Markets, beautiful women — they are all the same.  Crazy, hot, ecstatic, and loving the bad boys that will thrash them around pulling their hair in the process. Sure they are also unstable, vulnerable, dramatic and erotic — but you would be hard pressed to describe whether I am talking about the Chicks or the Markets.

But take my word for it — I know both rather well in the Biblical sense, and they both like the Bad Boy induced uncertainty and drama, and that is the only thing that makes them tick. That is their reason for being. Their Raison D’ Etre. The bad boy uncertainty is what makes their pulse rise, and their blood pump, and what makes the wetness & the lovely mistiness to return to their nether southern parts.

And if you like the resultant fecundity that causes all of us to make money, from all the thrashing, the rising, and the rallying, going on — just remember that this happened because Bad Boy Trump has riled the Market’s ire…

Of course, lots of drama ensues… And we love it. The markets keep rising. Good job.

So if you happened around a television set after the Presidential elections that gave us Donald Trump as the President — you must not have escaped the litany of minions and pundits offering that tired cliche that “the Markets hate uncertainty.” It must have been unavoidable to escape hearing that red herring ad nauseam, because it was the pundits’ preferred proverb, and it could be heard throughout the Politically Correct Media on TV, on the newspapers, and on the radio, all over the land.

Yet apparently the Markets don’t own a television set, like yours truly — and thus having heard nothing of the “terribly tired Cliche” they did their own thing. The Markets did their thing and rallied. Rallied wildly according to my axiom that “Markets, behave very much like Bitches in heat and Love the Bad Boy induced Uncertainty.”

“Markets love Bad Boys in Charge” and thus the US & UK and the World Markets went crazy and rallied strong, like unpinned bulls. The Bulls have it, and the markets went higher and higher, conquering peak after elevated peak, breaking record after record, in session after session of Wall Street and the City — behaving appropriately like bitches in heat, runaway fillies, or better yet — a horny bulls let loose, in a china shop.

Through these bulls running on Wall Street we all make loads of money now.

And in order to entertain us — these bulls started attacking the pundits, the globalist bankers, the Hilbot Fake Media, and the self loathing hedgies,  in a head on jump on their startled faces. Clearly as the picture shows, that caused a lot of wet “accidents” down there, like in the instance pictured bellow:

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Apparently Wall Street has a sweet tooth for such stupid investing maxims like “The Markets Hate Uncertainty” but truth be told — they enjoy them a bit too much. Fully knowing them to be fake like the news they peddle. Yet because it is through these cliches that they manage to keep the green traders, the uneducated investors, and the investment advisors under control, they make sure to infect the trading community with that brand of PC trading agenda. And Politically Correct trading is just as bad as the PC talk, and the PC Media and the PC Cultural Marxism, because it enforces the herd mentality, by spreading wildly amongst all people, and all of the servants of the Markets, like influenza in December. And it enforces a uniformity that doesn’t not allow the Freedom of Belief and Action that people with Free Will know and enjoy. It is plain and simple propaganda, because after all, the pundits all know that if you repeat these mindless dictums of insanity and stupidity, ad nauseam, they could become the accepted wisdom.

That’s where the essence of the PC propaganda rests.

These pundits, like good modern puritans along with the banker wankers and their brethren — can’t very well say my Axion “Markets, behave very much like Bitches in heat and Love the Bad Boy induced Uncertainty,” nor do they dare share it, without blushing and eating their words…

But You and I can. We are free people endowed with Free Will from our Creator.

So say it clearly so you remember it:

“Markets like Bitches like Uncertainty,” because “Markets, behave very much like Bitches in heat, and Love the Bad Boy induced Uncertainty.”

It’s simple and a memorable Meme: “Markets like Bitches like Uncertainty.”

And we can go even further: “Markets love Bad Boys in Charge.”

“Markets Love Bad Boys on Top”

“Markets, behave very much like Bitches in heat and Love the Bad Boy induced Uncertainty.”

So don’t be afraid to be a contrarian and appropriate these new Memes that prove that markets rally upon uncertainty and they love the stuff like cats love catnip.

You’ve got to go against the mainstream PC line, because that’s the basic principle of this silly PC game. Cultural marxism expropriating the stage of any reasonable debate, thus resulting in prescribed actions that make people behave in a predictable drone way. 1984 all over. George Orwell warned us about this. And for the Banker Wankers and their candidates like Bill Clinton, George Busch, Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton — it’s nice if you can get this obedience by the sheeple — until the proverbial bull’s dick comes to rest on your face, looking for an entry into your pie hole.

And that’s what happened to all the news pundits with the arrival of Donald Trump into the scene. They all lost their mind…

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Because The Donald, blew all of that Political Correctness out of the window. And along must go these supposed eternal proverbs, like the fallacy that markets hate uncertainty, because the problem with these supposed truisms is they are no more accurate than the flip of a coin, that is double faced.  Because a closer look at this uncertainty meme reveals it to be a falseism — one of those emotionally appealing phrases that idiots ping around trading desks, because they like to stay bored and boring doing the steady same thing time after time again and again. In essence doing no work but repeating easily done machine like actions that produce the same results.They should all be replaced by automatic trading machines and Artificial Intelligence acting computers.

Because it is the lack of evidence supporting their steady same premise that seems to matter to me since I am a Big Believer in nature. Have you ever seen any kind of certainty in existence n nature?

Pray Tell…

So in order to recognize how meaningless these statements are, consider the opposite:

“Markets, behave very much like Bitches in heat and Love the Bad Boy induced Uncertainty.”

Otherwise think of this simple question: Could markets even function without uncertainty?

It takes only a little thought to realize that markets actually thrive on doubt, imperfect information, uncertainty, and a lack of consensus.

Uncertainty drives the market’s price-discovery mechanism.

“Markets, behave very much like Bitches in heat and Love the Bad Boy induced Uncertainty.”

Mark my words here because basic investing requires there to be differences of opinion. When there is broad consensus agreement as to an asset’s fair value, trading volume falls. Without any uncertainty, who would take the opposite side of your trade?

History teaches that whenever the opposite occurs — when certainty overwhelms uncertainty — the herd tends to be wrong.

“Markets, behave very much like Bitches in heat and Love the Bad Boy induced Uncertainty.”

The herd tends to be wrong of course most of the time, but that’s another story…

In many instances, when there is a near-total lack of uncertainty in the market, the outcome is usually a spectacular disaster.

But let’s see what happens when absolute Certainty Rules…

“Markets, behave very much like Bitches in heat and Love the Bad Boy induced Uncertainty.”

Recall the dotcom – dot bomb Era, when everyone knew that profits no longer mattered. Uncertainty seemed to be banished.

An epic crash followed.

You Remember well what happened next…

“Markets, behave very much like Bitches in heat and Love the Bad Boy induced Uncertainty.”

We — the Contrarians were the only ones making money.

Right?

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After the Internet implosion, the opposite extreme was operational: Profitable, debt-free tech companies were being traded for less than book value. In a few rare instances, they were being sold for less than cash on hand. Investors had become certain that a dollar was worth only 75 cents.

“Markets, behave very much like Bitches in heat and Love the Bad Boy induced Uncertainty.”

There was little uncertainty heading into the March 2009 stock-market lows. Almost everyone was sure the world was falling into the abyss. In that massive and indiscriminate selling, it seemed almost certain that no one was ever going to buy another house or car, or send their kids to school, or for that matter, clothe or feed them.

How did the consensus work out in that instance?

“Markets, behave very much like Bitches in heat and Love the Bad Boy induced Uncertainty.”

There is No Reward from Certainty, so when we discuss uncertainty, what we are really discussing is risk. All unknown outcomes contain risk, and therein lies the possibility of loss. Risk is inherent in the concept of uncertainty. However, anyone looking for performance must embrace risk, for without it, there can be no reward.

Uncertainty is what makes alpha, or market-beating gains, possible. Smart traders know that uncertainty is where the money is. No uncertainty, no risk; no risk, no possibility of outperformance.

Want some certainty? Go buy yourself Treasuries. You can pick up a very lovely two-year bond yielding 0.41 percent. Good luck charging two and 20 on that…

Track Record, is all about the future, which, by definition, is unknowable. But on the basis of the past people choose to invest their Capital for the Future. Just think how crazy that sounds…

Investing involves making our best guesses about the value of an asset at some point after this moment in time. There will always be an element of uncertainty involved. We can discount various outcomes, engage in probabilistic analysis, but no one knows for certain what tomorrow will bring.

“Markets, behave very much like Bitches in heat and Love the Bad Boy induced Uncertainty.”

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Because those “wise pundits” who claim to know it all — suffer from the “Fail Army” malady and completely fail to understand the most basic workings of the markets. Maybe because they are nice geek boys and have no working knowledge of women, or maybe because they have never talked to women before — whatever their problem — they don’t know jack shit about the markets. And we only need to consider the track record of Wall Street’s pundits & prognosticators, in order to see the truth in this statement. As much as the future is uncertain, the most likely outcomes are well understood.

“Markets, behave very much like Bitches in heat and Love the Bad Boy induced Uncertainty.”

As an example, consider the uncertainty of tax rates. The 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cuts will either be eliminated, or they won’t. Marginal rates will go up by three or four percentage points, or not; capital gains rates might revert to 20 percent from 15 percent, or not.

The impact on the economy isn’t all that difficult to discern, even for Wall Street economists. Thus, uncertainty is far less uncertain than you might have been led to believe if you paid any attention to the chattering classes. Even the tax on dividends — which might rise from 15 percent at present to a 39.6 percent rate in the worst-case scenario — is less uncertain than it looks. Many dividend-paying stocks are held in tax-free or tax-deferred accounts, or are owned by non-taxable pension plans, foundations and trusts. This mutes the impact of even this uncertain tax change.

Pundits may hate uncertainty, because it tends to makes them look foolish twice: Before and after the fact. Whichever way the market goes, they look like fools, coming and going — but markets harbor no such bias. In fact, markets thrive on uncertainty. It is their reason for being.

“Markets, behave very much like Bitches in heat and Love the Bad Boy induced Uncertainty.”

And so we have now to LOVE the uncertainty that the new President Trump has injected into the Markets.

And he understands that principle and that is why he makes it obvious that he likes to cultivate Uncertainty by the boatload.

Not only because he doesn’t want to telegraph his intentions to the world and to our enemies but because he is certain that the UNCERTAINTY IS ALL AROUND US.

Yet now it’s happening wholesale and bigly, and we all love it even though the pundits heads are exploding, and are all blaming the President for it.

So… “Markets, behave very much like Bitches in heat and Love the Bad Boy induced Uncertainty.”

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It’s happening fast, and it’s happening for all the right reasons, now that Trump has pulled back the cloak of invisibility that the German EuroMasters thought that would forever cover their puppet management of the ECB and Draghi, and their minions inside the Brussels EU machine. And by the way he does the same with the Chinese and the other allies of this Globalization NeoNazi agenda.

And maybe now, the sheeple of Europe can finally wake up from the vivid nightmare they’ve been living into because one of the most common cognitive tricks we play on ourselves is our tendency to explain what just happened with a story line that seemingly makes sense out of randomness.

Nothing ever just “is,” and we fabricate a comforting tale that (of course!) accounts for the latest events, making it possible for us to imagine we know what is going to happen next.

And then we have the problem of suspension of disbelief when perceived Authority figures speak, like Mr Draghi and Mr Carney. That problem we should correct ourselves, lest we fail to heed the warnings of our perilous existence.

Simple really. “Markets, behave very much like Bitches in heat and Love the Bad Boy induced Uncertainty.”

Because uniform opinions and certainty leads to trouble when it comes to markets. And as usual, all too often, reality begs to differ. To wit: The post-election rally is an example of just that sort of story-telling.

Do you recall the drama on election-night as the so-called impenetrable blue wall (another narrative fantasy) crumbled and the Liberals started crying crocodile tears and Crooked Hillary went blotto, and broke all the furniture in a drunken alcoholic temper tantrum because the Good people of the Midwest spat on her face?

Good you remember that the blue wall developed just enough cracks in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that resembled Aleppo in Syria, and that made it obvious that the lead will go to Donald Trump and lead the Conservative Leader into the White House.

And despite the closeness of the polling heading into the last few days of the campaign, the Banker Wanker were assured of Hillary’s victory and kept pumping millions and billions into the election of their servant Crooked Hillary. Even the Saudis who gave her a whooping Billion dollars went to the global markets to borrow this Capital and for a moment it seemed that everybody was unprepared for the lovely “No-Surprise” of the TRUMP PRESIDENCY. However the Markets in their wisdom had anticipated and priced this outcome, and although the reflective pessimism of the new Bears sell out helped them fall as much as 5 percent on the news — they immediately rebounded sky high.

After all — Perception is Reality.

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The pundits after-the-fact explanation was that Trump was going to start a trade war or a currency war or an actual shooting war, any of which would be bad for business and corporate profits, and that is why everyone was recommending a sell off. A panic sell out followed that brought down 900 points in the futures markets overnight… Surely the sheeple followed that bad panic driven advise and along with the milennial traders crying over spilled milk of Hillary’s loss, and losing their shit – many others lost their shit and lost their shirt too. Hedgies like George Soros who is estimated to have lost a whooping Ten Billion Dollars acting out on bad advise of his own pessimism about Donald Trump, are now crying in their cups. Hillary Clinton’s losses and the Clnton’s wealth invested in her son in law Hedge Fund were so massive — that the Hedge Fund has to be shuttered. Along with the losses of the Clinton’s in the Free markets, the capital of the Clinton Global Initiative has flown the coop in these monumental Market Reversal and are now shutting down the whole CGI corruption outfit that was masquerading as a Charity for the benefit of the Clinton mafia alone.

Well deserved deserts for all concerned. As for George Soros losing his shirt from the Free markets reacting as Free and Brave People expressed themselves — that’s the cost of an old Nazi expressing his undying Love for Crooked Hillary, America the land of the Free and the brave. Well Done Moffos…. Ba-Ha, ba-ha, ba-ha…

These morons lost their shirts because even before the markets opened in the USA, their futures had already reversed as cool headed people celebrated Donald Trump’s Victory with an Optimistic and “Super Buy” mood. Markets kept rallying day after day and the Losers’ losses kept mounting. That’s why they unleashed the Riot Brigades to scare the Markets into submission by showing stupidly that the US was ungovernable…

Now questions have come up about the ties between Goldman Sachs and another member of the Clinton family: Hillary’s son-in-law Marc Mezvinsky. He worked at Goldman for eight years, then formed a hedge fund in part with help from Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein, and the money of the Clinton Global Initiative and the Clinton’s private wealth… Marc Mezvinsky, the hedge fund manager son in law of Hillary Clinton, has now officially shut down his hedge fund after losing all of his investors money.

Chelsea Clinton’s husband, failed hedge fund manager Marc Mezvinsky, has closed his failed hedge fund, Eaglevale Partners, according to a Bloomberg report.

The hedge fund, which was launched in 2011 with the help of Goldman Sachs CEO and longtime Clinton supporter Lloyd Blankfein, shut down in December, and is in the process of returning money to investors.

Eaglevale Partners was not very successful. In May 2016, Mezvinsky announced the shutting down of a special Greece-focused investment fund that had lost nearly 90 percent of its value in two years.

Mezvinsky’s career in finance has been slightly more successful than that of his father, former Congressman Edward Mezvinsky, who served five years in jail for defrauded his friends and family members out of millions of dollars.

Like Father, like son…

Well they failed. They all failed. And they failed bigly. They failed big league. And they now officially populate the Fail Army and looking for a job as your next Financial Analyst. Let’s throw them a bone and hire them to clean the toilets.

So, the after-the-fact explanation requires a serious rewrite.

In my mind here are the three things that are the cause of the Markets’ Tremendous Upswing:

  1. Donald Trump
  2. Donald Trump
  3. Donald Trump  — The cause of all this Goodness is simply Donald Trump leading from the White House and working on behalf of Making America Great Again. Because those who thought that the simple expectations of the Markets, like the incoming big infrastructure stimulus, the future big tax cuts, and the broad deregulation for banks and industry that are all coming, would do the job alone — are fools. All of these things are now on the menu — simply because DONALD TRUMP became the 45th President of the United States. So because of him, all of the U.S. markets took off, rallying more than 12% during the course of the next month.

How is that not beautiful?

And given all of this, I have my own after-the-fact explanation: UNCERTAINTY RULES.

YES, uncertainty rules. Uncertainty, although not in the way you’ve been conditioned to think about it based on the widespread misuse of the term by too many market pundits and commentators, is a necessary ingredient of Life, Markets, & Nature.

A more appropriate definition of this concept probably can explain the market’s shift in sentiment: “Markets, behave very much like Bitches in heat and Love the Bad Boy induced Uncertainty.”

We have addressed the issue of uncertainty and why uncertainty is a necessary driver of markets. Yet for today’s exercise, let’s use “Markets, behave very much like Bitches in heat and Love the Bad Boy induced Uncertainty.” as an explanation of the difference between what is unknown and what is uncertain.

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It’s something like this:

Unknown: We don’t know exactly what any specific outcome might be, but we do know the data set we are working with — the range of possible outcomes is limited.

Uncertain: We don’t know exactly what any specific outcome might be, and we also have an open data set — many outcomes are possible. The data set is unknown and unknowable.

For money managers, the difference between these two matters a great deal, as it significantly affects how they determine what the risk of any given investment or market or environment might be.

Consider various unknown but not uncertain events: Toss of a coin, roll of a dice, flip of a card from a deck — all of these are unknown outcomes within a very defined data set. Because of that, mathematicians can quantify the probabilities of these outcomes; we know what the distribution looks like. From that, gamblers can derive estimates of risk.

However, once we venture into the realm of the wholly unknown possible outcomes — e.g., building a border fence, imposing a huge tax on imports, shutting down immigration — calculating risk becomes from difficult to impossible.

Which brings us back to the period since the markets began to rally after the election: My thesis is that Trump has re-introduced true uncertainty into the equation. Many market participants are coming to realize they have no idea what is going to happen next. And that is helping Markets rally, because “Markets, behave very much like Bitches in heat and Love the Bad Boy induced Uncertainty.”

The PC media and the PC collective wishful thinking assumed Trump would pivot to the middle, to being presidential, to predictable professionalism, failing to really pay attention and hear the man himself speaking. They fail to hear President Trump and hear whatever it is they like to have heard. If that s not mass hysteria and massive illusion then I don’t know what that is. Because President Trump basically executes on what he promised to do on his pre-election program, on his promises, and on his agenda. Still idiotic people don’t believe him because they have never seen a Politician that carries on what they promise to the Office after they won.

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But the Donald, is not a politician and that is what throws the spanner in the works.

He does what he promised but uses reverse psychology on the Politically Correct Media and the Pundits and that has altered the mind of the Public to the point that they don’t believe what is happening. The PC brigade has seen their own heads explode, and we see that all over the Media.

And of course as a response the PC media and the PC pundits claim that all kinds of devilish scenarios are playing out, but it all turns out peachy. We win. Victories abound. Peaches and cream, along with flag and apple pie, and even the amazing Patriots win at the Super Bowl.

As for the apocalyptic end of the world scenarios that the Libtards have promised the Trump presidency will usher — none of that has happened, none of the panic is real, and the markets that according to pundits should have have been somewhat put off by the president’s erratic, even bizarre, behavior, have instead just rallied and rallied ahead breaking new and fresh records.

Apparently the sort of stability and certainty that is supposedly good for business has been notably absent, and the Markets love the uncertainty.

“Markets, behave very much like Bitches in heat and Love the Bad Boy induced Uncertainty.”

So to all the Casandras out there — I have one thing to say to you:

Pull up your panties high and tight, and let’s enjoy the ride.

Join up and enjoy the ride, because there is an after party for the Winners too.

After all, it’s the Chinese year of the Phoenix-Rooster, and that looks awfully like Donald Trump and the Year of Making America Great Again.

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“Markets, behave very much like Bitches in heat and Love the Bad Boy induced Uncertainty.”

I know and speak from long experience with the extremely pretty women who are  vulnerable princesses and unstable ice queens, at the same time…

And we use women to spread this message around: “Markets, behave very much like Bitches in heat and Love the Bad Boy induced Uncertainty.”

Models, Actresses, and Pretty Women — please apply within, because we need all of you to spread this Meme in order to save you from imminent bankruptcy… and lack of a Valentine to save your life.

Cheers

Happy New Year and Happy New Life.

Your Happy Valentine will be delivered in person.


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